Wednesday, November 7, 2012

2012-2013 Predictions

The much anticipated 2012-13 season is here, it's time again to separate pretenders from contenders and determine who's the real deal and just hype. Again I'm making the following analysis based on teams staying in good health. I'll break them down by divisions ranked from worst to best:

**Update** I originally started before the Harden trade had occurred, I think he'll give Houston some wins, but will stand by my original predictions.

ATLANTIC

Toronto - The Raptor happen to play in the Least's strongest division, so a 5th trip to the lottery is assured. It's not that their bad, the Atlantic is stacked and will send 4 teams to the post season, they have some nice additions with Kyle Lowry and rookie Jonas Valanciunas along with former Knick Landry Fields.  Calderon and Bargnani will still start and the former #1 pick should flourish playing the 4 spot.  Give them a couple of years and they should be contending for the playoffs. Prediction: Lotto Bound.

Philadelphia - Last years surprise team lost some key contributors from last season's run, they now however own the 2nd best center in the league in former Laker Andrew Bynum. Last season first time all-star has much to prove as he will now be the focal point of the franchise. The sixers will be a good team, but also suffer from being in a stacked division. With Iguodala and Brand gone they've lost some front court defense and lost a big bench threat with Lou Williasm going home to Atlanta. Still the starters look solid and the bench looks decent. Worst case scenario is Bynum playing limited games which will hurt their chances in making the post season again, even then I don't think they can be higher than 8. Prediction: Date with East top seed, first round exit.

Brooklyn - The former Nets start a new chapter in their franchise and the expectations are high, with some even claiming they're the best in team in NY. Not just yet, while the Nets starting five looks great, they got very little from the bench. The starters should be fun to watch and a nightmare to play. In Wallace and Humphries they own two of the scrappiest hard workers in the league, say what you will about the former Kardashian beau, only 11 players averaged a double double last year, and he was one of them, and Wallace is still a great wing defender and finisher. Brook Lopez is better than Dwight Howard according to Shaq so they should be good in the middle. D-Will also now has a legitimate scoring threat with the addition of Joe Johnson, if they get decent production from the bench, they could be a nuisance. Prediction: Return to playoff no higher than 5 seed, first found exit.

New York - The mecca of basketball brought it in an impressive collection of new faces including some former all-stars, the drawback is that their best years are behind them. The leagues oldest team has plenty experience but some have logged in a vast amount of miles already. To add concern, Amar'e won't be ready for about six weeks, which actually could be good thing. At full strength the front court is one of the best in the league with Melo and Chandler joingin Amar'e. Raymond Felton returns to the big apple where he first joined Amar'e and had a pretty decent run til being traded. Newcomer Ronnie Brewer comes in from two good runs with the Bulls and adds a nice defensive minded wing. The bench is not bad with sharpshooter J.R. Smith and Novak joining future Hall of Famer Jason Kidd, 2nd year Iman Shurpert and former Knick Marcus Camby will be the reserve big men and old school Kurt Thomas and 'Sheed Wallace should do damage in limited time. Prediction: top four seed, 2nd round exit

Boston - The Leprechauns loaded up nicely to give it one more run in KG and Pierce's career. The breakup of the big three adds to the intensity whenever they face the newly crowned champs. Boston remains Miami's top threat and if healthy will still threaten in the East finals with the addition of super sub Jason Terry, Courtney Lee, and the Brazilian Blur. The return of Green is a welcome and if the new kids Fab Melo and Sullinger can come in contribute they'll be nice steals. Big guys Jason Collins, Chris Wilcox and Darko won't be asked to do much and that should be a good thing. A finals return is not unlikely, the Celtics possess the intensity, discipline, and fearlessness to match up and beat the Heat. Prediction: Least Finals

CENTRAL

Motown - The once East Final staple is still rebuilding and not expected to make a run anytime soon. Tayshaun Prince is the sole member left from the glory days, but at least they seem to have a pretty good big man in Greg Monroe. A return to the lottery is pretty much guaranteed. Preidciton: Duh.

Cleveland - As expected Miami won the race to the trophy, but all has not been bad for King Crab's former team. ROY Kyrie Irving is an all-star in the making is being surrounded with some young talent that should be fun to watch but won't do much in the win column. Casspi and Miles will form the backbone in the bench, but that's it. The starting five along with Irving, youngsters Gee, Waiters, and Thompson and hold back Varejao should match up with plenty of teams, give them a few years to grow under Byron Scott and they may be contending in a couple of years. Prediction: Lotto bound

Milwaukee - The Bucks parted ways with their big man to make room for an top scoring guard, didn't they have this already? While on paper the combo of Jennings and Monta Ellis looks pretty good, it's hard to imagine both taking turns shooting, it's gonna be interesting to see.  Besides their high shooting guards, nothing else will make team "fear the deer" The only significant addition was re-signing Ilyasova. Prediction: Lotto

Chicago - The most important thing for Da Bulls is surviving without Derrick Rose. They are not expected to make a huge dent, some to not even make the playoffs. It was bad luck to have their young star suffer an injury like this and pretty much lose a year, but if he can come back close to what he used to be, it will keep the Bulls contending. Even with the loss of Rose, the Bulls remain a decent team. Kirk Hinrich returns for a 2nd stint and run the floor while Rose returns. The other starters are solid and this would be a great time for Boozer to earn his contract. The bench got weaker with the loss of Asik and Brewer but still employ super sub Taj Gibson and newcomer Belinelli. While not a favorite anymore, the Bulls will still compete, and if Rose returns and plays close to his level, this is not a team anyone would want to play in the first round. Prediction: Low seed, first round exit.

Indiana - The Pacers have improved the last two season and no longer will catch anyone by surprise anymore, in fact the expectations are high. The third best team in the Least lost some punch with the loss of Collison and Barbosa. Newcomer Agustine will get a chance to play for a contender now and will be expected to run the floor when Hill rests. The other four players form a nice starting five with youngsters George and Hibbert still long ways from reaching their potential. West and Granger are the dependable vets that just by doing what they've done in their careers will help this clup immensely. Indiana is a top 3, but not really a contender, they will give the 2nd seed all they can handle in the 2nd round, but will fall short of a Final Four trip. Prediction: East semis

SOUTHEAST

Orlando - The Southeast is a one team division now with Dwight Howard gone and the Hawks reloading. The Magic got snubbed bad, and only Afflalo is the sole bright spot. Prediction: Rock bottom

Charlotte - MJ's boys at least won't be as bad as last year, oh they'll be bad, but not historically bad. Newcomer Ramon Sessions did Lakers a favor and opted out making room for Nash in LA, with expectations low, he should have a decent season. Bobkittens also adden vets Ben Gordon and 2011 champ Brendan Haywood who at once were pretty good players, and again should have a decent year. The young ones are the ones that hold the key of Bobcats becoming the new Clippers or bringing pro basketball back to the state of NC. Kidd-Gilchrest joins another young talent in Walker, but have little else unless big men Biyombo and Mullens have a breakout year. Prediction: Lotto

Washington - The capital team added some nice pieces bringing in former ROY Okafor, versatile Trevor Ariza, to join last season addition of Nene and pick Beal to run alongside John Wall. Unfortunately this first 3 players mentioned have not been known to finish full seasons in their career, if healthy they will have a nice starting unit that will contend most nights, but already they are down one as John Wall is expected to miss the first month of basketball. Besides the starters they have very little on the reserves, the key is still health, if they can remain healthy they'll fighting for the last seed, but still not quite there: Prediction: Lotto

Atlanta - Their streak of second round exits ended and they have now unloaded the monster contract of Joe Johnson, so where are they at now. Again the Hawks will make the post season but not really pose any threat. They still possess a nice 4/5 combo in Smith and Horford and are loaded at the guard spot with newcomers Devin Harris, Lous Williams, and even DeShawn Stevenson. They won't have a problem scoring and may surprise a few teams if they suddenly catch fire. but unless they can close out a tight game without having to depend on the long ball, it's another early exit. Prediction: First Round

Miami - The reigning champs are favorites to not only repeat in the Least but overall. With the additions of Allen and Lewis experts are pretty much penning them as repeat champs. The main advantage they have is their new commitment to a position less offense which allows James to wreck havoc at the 4, the Bostrich make his slow defender ineffective removing him from play or the floor, Battier pick up wing defensive unit, Wade be Wade, and any other member that can hit from outside. If they played traditional 1-5, teams could match up and expose weakness with Bosh/James playing out of position it creates match up problems in their favor which little teams can adjust to. As far as being targets, hell they've been targets the last 2 years, so they'll be fine. If a team has bigs that can punish them inside slowing the game down, they can be beat. In the Least only Boston with their experience and hatred and maybe just maybe New York and their loaded offense can dethrone them. In the West, OKC remains favorite, stubborn San Antonio, and the revamped Lakers it they can get production from the bench. Dallas and the other LA can beat them in the regular season, not sure about the playoffs. Prediction: Finals

NORTHWEST

Portland - Rip city could use some luck after the unfortunate retirement of Roy and the unlucky health of Oden. As in recent years, the Rose Garden will still be a tough place to play. All Star Aldridge is still there, rookie Damien Lillard looks promising, and Matthews and Batum should be solid. Unfortunately they play in the West, in the Least they'd be a lock for the playoffs, here they'll be fighting for the last seed in a competitive division where they'll finish 4th or 5th. Tough break. Prediction: Lotto

Utah - Like Portland the Jazz will surprise a few teams especially in their building, but will not have enough to land them in the post season in the fierce West. With a line up employing Jefferson, Millsap, Hayward, and newcomer Mo Williams and a bench that includes Favors and Kanter, it doesn't sound too bad does it. This Jazz version lacks the blue collar mentality from Coach Sloan though, they'll score, they'll win, but they're not stopping anyone. Prediction: Fight for 8th barely miss it

Minnesota - It has been 8 years since the Timberpups tasted post season, that may come to an end this season with the return of AK47 and Roy to the NBA. A couple of vets of their skill is just what the Pups needed to get them back in the post season even if it means a first round exit. If the Pups can survive the first month without their All Star Love and Rubio can continue close to where he left off, exciting ball is expected in Minny. AK teammate Shved looks like he can ball and JJ Barea should come back after a sub par year and show he earned his contract and Budinger contribute right away. Pekovic and Derrick Williams while not stars fit nicely in their systems, and once sought point Ridnour will hold guard until Rubio returns. Prediction: Fight for 8th, return to post season

Mile High - The Denver Nuggets have always been known to have non-star squad that competes every year. Considered one of the deepest teams the Nuggets again will run over teams that do not take them seriously. Team USA member Andre Iguodala will bring versatility they have not had, teamed with Lawson,McGee, Faried, Chandler, and Brewer, they are gonna have a blazing athletic trio. To balance it out Gallinari and the ever dependable Miller will still be there. They should be a fun bunch to watch. Prediction: Good but not elite, will be in 4-6 mix, but they're high octane offense won't work in the playoffs and will exit in the first round.

OKC - Where else can the bad taste in the mouth Thunder go. Anything but not only a return to the Finals but a parade through OKC will be a failed season. The Thunder kept their core and should be inspired by last year's short comings. Gone is Fisher but back will be Maynor who will be great to have back.  **With the loss of Harden they lose a huge advantage they had against most teams save Miami. Martin will give them plenty of scoring punch, but lack the play making that Harden brought. Still will win the division, finish among the top 2, and expected to bring home the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Prediction: West Finals, return to Finals likely.

PACIFIC

Phoenix - With the departure of its face of the franchise the last 8 years also go their chance to remain relevant. Nash has moved on to the hated Lakers, and while they added Scola, Beasly, and Dragic they will suffer what most west teams do, they play in a stacked conference where they'll be no easy games. Can't see them more than a stop in a long season. Prediction: Lotto

Sacramento - Faring no much better than Phoenix, the still in Sacramento Kings will no have a very memorable last season in Sac Town, if it is their last season here, I really hope not, I think they have had great fans always. As far the team goes they're loaded with young talent but don't seem to have an identity. Evans needs to get back to his ROY form, Salmons needs to remember how to play again, and Cousins need to stop being a head ache. The talent is there to compete for the last spot someone needs to step up as leader. Prediction: Lotto

The City - These first three teams reviewed will not have wining records, the best one of the three if healthy should be the Warriors. The Warriors now have with the addition of former #1 pick Bogut and rookie Barnes alongside former All-Star Lee a solid front line to go along a talented back court of Curry and Thompson. The question is, "How many games will they play together?". When healthy and relived by Jarrett Jack, Jefferson, and Rush will be feisty team to put away, but the walking M.A.S.H. unit has proven otherwise, once too many times. Prediction: Lotto

Other LA - The New LA Kings, Lob City, Flop City, whatever their new nickname is are set to take the reigns from their co-tenant. Considered one of the deepest if not the deepest team in the league, some have the Clips actually as serious contenders for the title. The Additions of Grant Hill, Lamar Odom, Matt Barnes, and super sub Jamaal Crawford along with token bigs Turiaf and Hollins join a lineup that even without Billups is still a force.. on paper. This is the Clippers afterall and if it's too good to be true, it's probably not. On paper they can compete with the likes of Miami, but I'm still not convinced DJ has improved immensely as they claim. Griffin is still pretty much a highlight reel, Hill, Butler and Billups are not iron men, and former Laker Odom may never recover from last year. Another thing is, they will no longer sneak up on anyone, and teams will look to ground Lob City, besides Paul, Hill, and Billups can they handle the expectations? Prediction: 4-6 mix, if 4-5 will advance and bow out again in the semis, if 6 will have a disappointing first round exit.

Lake Show - The revamped Lakers are loaded to win now not later. With a star studded starting five anything but a parade through Figueroa will be considered a bust. On paper theLakers look dominant, but the reality is how fast will they get used to playing alongside each other as they look horrible in pre season. The bench looks much improved with the additions of former 6th man Jamison, 3 point specialist Jodie Meeks and the return of Jordan Hill, but I have seen many "great" pickups backfire for the Lakers while they succeed anywhere else they play, such as Teagle, Rooks, Rider, Foster, Richmond, Hunter, Murray, Russell, McKie, Radmanovic, Barnes, Blake, Murphy to name a few. So, until I see them play I'll believe it. Unless the injury bug hits them like their last failed All-Star Squad in '04, they should have a deep run. Prediction: West Finals, return to Finals and last team standing, highly probable.

SOUTHWEST

Houston - With the addition of Harden they now have a legit star to run alongside hyped Lin, the thing is that's pretty much all they have. Asik was a good pickup, but other than that everyone else is unproven. Still I had them finishing last in the division before the trade, I'm sticking to it. Prediction: Lotto

New Orleans - At least the arrival of the Brow and Rivers will slowly make fans forget CP3, if Gordon can stay healthy and get back to his Team USA form, they will have a good thing going for them. They're still young and lack some vet presence. They're time will come. Prediction: Lotto

Memphis - A loaded team that would tear it up in the Least but will be bottom feeder in the West. The Grizzlies employ a talented starting five but no longer have the instant offense that Mayo gave them. Still Randolph and Gasol may not be highlights but are very good at what they do. Conley and Allen compliment each other nicely and Gay is still one of the better wings in the game. The lack of bench punch hurts though: Prediction: First Round Exit

Dallas - Unlike most fans and experts I don't expect the former champs to fade away from its winning ways just yet. Nowitzki, Marion, and Beaubois are the lone mainstays from their title run, but they reloaded nicely picking up Collison, Mayo, Brand, Dahntay Jones, and Kaman, 5 players who have been pretty good in their careers more often than not. If the new faces can contribute anywhere near what they have done in their careers, Dallas may not be a contender but will far from be a pushover. The one setback is the recent news of Nowitzki having to miss extended time, well, better now than later. Prediction: Top 5 in West, toss up between first round or second.

San Antonio - Phil Jackson once referred as cockroaches, they just won't go away. One look at their roster and it doesn't impress much past their big 3, but oh that Spurs management that always seems to get the right players for their system. The ageless wonder of TD will continue to help the new alpha of the team Parker. As long as they have TD and Poppovich I don't see this team not competing not only for best record, but the whole enchilada itself. Unlike the Lakers they are expected to be in the mix every year, but if they fail, is no biggie, of course if they win it it's no surprise either. Prediction: Top 2 in West, Top 3 Overall, West Finals if top seed, 2nd round if 2nd seed,  no surprise if make run to the Finals.

WEST FINALS

Lakers over Thunder

EAST FINALS

cHeat over Leprechauns

FINALS

Lakers over cHeat

No one deserves a ring more than Steve Nash, I hope it's so. Enjoy the season guys.

No comments:

Post a Comment