Thursday, August 19, 2010

2011 Predictions & Team Previews

Over the years many teams have looked good on papers, too many to count. It's easy for fans to get excited about their team prematurely, but if you know anything about sports you know damn well that too many things can wrong and screw up your magic season. The most obvious is an injury, which can happen at the wrong time, drag on through the season, or worse case scenario finish a players season. Inner franchise turmoil can also play a factor from in-house bickering to new team mates not syncing, so having said that, I'm making the following analysis based on teams staying in good health. I'll break them down by divisions ranked from worst to best:

ATLANTIC

Toronto - Have again lost their franchise player, still have some talent and will win their small share of games, but do not have enough fire power to be taken seriously. The biggest threat is Bargnani, who gets an opportunity to get rid of his bust title. Back in the league Linas Kleiza had a is good shooter and may just end up as the teams second scorer. Barbosa arrives and gets a chance to revive his career along with Jack, they should form a pretty good reserve back court. In the end with an improving East, the Raptors will miss the playoffs for the third straight year.

Philadelphia - Improved a bit with the additions of Nocioni and the energetic Hawes from Sacramento and should be an exciting team as they are loaded with young athletic players. Team USA member Iguodala continues to steady and deserves All-Star recognition if he keeps it up. If Brand can earn his keep Philly will make opponents work for their victories, they should eclipse last years win total, but still miss the playoffs.

Brooklyn - Kept busy in the off season and will not suck as bad as last year under the leadership of former Coach of the Year Avery Johnson. If new additions of Murphy,Farmar,Morrow, and Outlaw can contribute right away they should at least triple last year's win total. An added bonus on Murphy is his expiring contract that could be used as trade bait come February especially if Murphy under achieves. The other three additions should flourish under Johnson along with Harris, Lopez, and newcomer Williams. I believe they have a shot at fighting for the eight spot.

New York - The latest on the mecca of basketball is that they are working to have their own version of a super team in the near future. Presently though the Knycks stayed quite busy trying to lure King Crab into their fold. With pretty much a roster overhaul, the only key member they lost was All-Star David Lee but with the numerous additions, I think they can live with that. All-NBA Amar'e Stoudemire brings his explosiveness to the Garden, while he may not get as many easy buckets minus the passing of Steve Nash, new floor general Raymond Felton should give him plenty of opportunities. Joining them in the starting line up will be Anthony Randolph from the Warriors, Danilo Gallinari and the athletic Bill Walker. How the bench produces will be the key factor on the team's success, the Knycks are on the right track to end their playoff drought and should make it as a low seed.

Boston - The Leprechauns will win their fourth straight division title and should be one of the top 3 teams in the East and one of the favorites to not only win the East, win it all. The one thing they have against them is time as most of their big names are no longer young guns and more prone to being sidelined by nagging accumulating injuries. They lost wing man Tony Allen who provided excellent defense off the bench and that job will now belong to Marquis Daniels who gets another shot with the boys in green. The two O'neals arrive with a history of injuries but also with the ability to still pose a threat at the post and should fill in nicely until Grumpy recovers from surgery. I don't think any other team poses a bigger threat in the East to the hyped Miami trio than the defending east champs. While probably losing some speed there's less than a handful of players who can guard Shaq straight up, none play for Miami, his skill in using his size also gives the Celtics a chance to enter the penalty early, now if only Rondo could hit his freebies. With both O'neals on board, Rondo now has two more targets with good hands to feed the ball to. Marquis,Big Baby, and Robinson could easily start with another team and should give the starters plenty of rest against lesser opponents. This team is not made to dominate in the regular season, if healthly come playoffs, they're definately favorites.

CENTRAL

Cleveland - Wouldn't it be something for the Cavs to come true on owner Dan Gilberts's word and win it before King Crab, that'd be awesome, I'll be rooting for them, and even though they have the majority of last years pieces in place, the open looks Parker and Mo' Williams were getting last year won't be there or the easy buckets for Varejao and Hickson. After 2 consecutive 60 win season the Cavs will be luck if they win half of that, I don't see them making the playoffs, sorry Dan, you shouldn't quote in the heat of anger.

Indiana - Well good news is that the Pacers will remain in Indiana, bad news is they will miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year. Team USA Danny Granger should have another All-Star season and if Darren Collison can duplicate last year's sucess, he will give the one Indiana bright spot, Granger some hope for the future. Pacers will be one of those teams that will have flashes but in the long run will only win between 34-38 games.

Motor City - Detroit shouldn't have been as bad as they were, but are far from being a legit threat. They have a nice collection of talent starting with title holdovers Rip, Prince, and Big Ben. Villanueva and Gordon should contribute better after one season and then there's T-Mac who wants to revitalize his career. They'll improve if healthy, but if they continue the rebuild plan, I don't expect Rip and Prince to finish the season as Pistons. In the conference dominated by 3 teams, Detroit has a shot to get into the playoffs, don't think they will though.

Milwaukee - The surprise team of last year improved with the additions of Gooden, Maggette, and Douglas-Roberts. Jennings and Salmons are a great back court and Bogut is one the better big men around with Ilyasova and Delfino providing a punch off the bench. The one thing they have against them is that they will no longer sneak up on teams as they are now a competitive team again. I believe they are the sixth best team in the Least, but can easily win their division if new Chicago Bull Boozer continues to be injured, speaking of which...

Chicago - Another team hoping to cash in the King Crab sweepstakes. They didn't do bad at all though loading former Jazz players All Star Carlos Boozer, sharp shooter Kyle Korver, and wing man Ronnie Brewer who is coming off an season ending injury last year. Anything less that a top 5 seed will be a disappointment. While not an elite team yet, they sure are on the right path and should remain competitive the next few years.

SOUTHEAST

Washington - Agent 0 probably won't remain a Wizard by season's end, while having some decent players, in Josh Howard, Blatche, and Hinrich they are most definately still rebuilding. They'll be improved and John Wall is an early favorite for ROY but will still be lotto bound.

Charlotte - Main reason I have them ahead of Washington is due to Coach Brown. MJ's team finally tasted post season and if they're to get back again will be looking at an early exit. The starters are decent but their bench is thin, may or may not make the playoffs they do play in the East after all.

Atlanta - Still in the top 5 but depending on the chemistry of Chicago may fall to the 5th seed. I like Joe Johnson but that contract was ludicrous the only other signing was former Lakers bench warmer Josh Powell. Their streak into the 2nd round will end, they are still a good team and should steal some W's from the 4 teams ahead of them.

Orlando - The reigning division champs can very likely win it's 5th straight. They still have a solid starting lineup who can light it up from downtown any given night. Lewis still poses mismatch problems and Carter has enough left in the tank to be productive. The addition of Q Richardson gives them yet another threat from distance and Reddick has proven to be a very valuable reserve along with Pietrus and the Polish Hammer. Oh yeah they also the most intimidating big man in the game, if only he could develop a post, oh the possibilities.

Miami - Jeff Van Gundy has stated the new look Heat have a legit shot at breaking EVERY NBA record including the Bulls 72 wins total in '96, and the immortal 33 game win streak by the '72 Lakers. Does breaking EVERY record include the longest losing streak? Just curious. JVG also stated they will not lose 2 games in a row due to the extreme gap in talent level with the lesser teams. While yes Miami is going to be a beast, let the season play out before handing them the title shall we? Don't know how the new Miami Thrice union will work out, honestly I hope it backfires and they miss the playoffs, but that's asking too much. They should be one of the 3 teams in the East maybe the league and may even contend for the top record, but that means absolutely squat if you can't bring in the post season. They're heavy favorites not only to win the East but win it overall. I say they fall short against Boston if healthy, Orlando has the talent of dismiss them as well.

NORTHWEST

Minnesotta - The Timberpups actually have some exciting young talent led by Team USA Kevin Love. The local newspaper admitted their team is not yet a contender, well, duh! What will they say next, Darko is a bust? For better or worse, those remaining 'pup fans if patient may have a team worth watching in 3 years with this collection of talent. Until then, the curse of KG lives on. Lotto bound


Denver - The supposed biggest threat to the champs last year seem different that the explosive Final Four team of two years ago even with most of the roster still intact. The problem with Denver is not the roster though but inner turmoil that will plague the team all season regarding their best player final destination. Barring distractions Denver still has a solid team led by Melo and ageless Chauncy Billups. Afflalo fit nice last season and newcomer Al Harrington should contribute immediately. Nene played all 82 games last season but actually contributed a tad less from the season before, still compliments the stars nicely. The bench will now have K-Mart, when he heals up, and instant offense J.R. Smith, Lawson was a surprise last season, and the Birdman should have a better season after surgery. Again it is not their talent, but inner turmoil that will be the downfall of this team, if they can solve the distractions and Coach Karl can remain at the helm, the Nuggets will again be a threat.

Portland - Rip City, considered a perennial power house, two years ago, now a question mark due to nagging injuries. Still employ one the best young players in the league and surround him with a pretty good supporting cast. While aging Andre Miller and Marcus Camby continue to be reliable when on the floor. Battum had a successful world championship round and may have a breakthrough season, Aldridge continues to be a good sidekick and has definitely All-Star potential. The bench is deep especially when Oden and Przybilla come back, and with the addition of Wesley Matthews should be very good if they can come to an agreement with Rudy Fernandez. With this kind of talent, only health issues and the loaded West will keep them from reaching the second round.

Utah - Lost an All-Star, a sharp shooter, and a surprising young reserve, and their starting center is sidelined, not very promising you would think right? Not for the Jerry Sloan led Jazz who will give it 110% regardless of the odds. Led by best point guard in league Deron Willams, the Jazz will now move Millsap into the starting spot and will not have to wonder if their starting PF will be available on a daily basis. Al Jefferson comes hungry and with lots to prove that he can succeed in a good team as well. AK 47 wil more than likely return to the starting lineup and will be the X-Factor for the team. The bench is thinner than last season but includes some scrappy blue collar type players that should mesh well in the Sloan system led by newcomers, Earl Watson, Raja Bell, and rookie Hayward, the bench will get a boost once Memo comes back.

OKC - Heirs to the West throne, are the expectations too high? MVP favorite Kevin Durant showed he can shine in the spotlight after a very successful World Championships tour, fellow Team USA mate Westbrook is developing into one the leagues best young guards, and Jeff Green almost made Team USA, so you know he has talent, at the 2 spot they have Sefolosha, who is developing into a superb perimeter defender but is limited offensively, the oldest player is big man Krstic at 27, which give you and idea how young this team is, and how excited their fans must be. Their biggest weakness is still big bodies and a developing bench which bolsters, Jeff Green, Sergei Ibaka, Eric Maynor, and added vet Morris Petersen who gives them an outside threat and much needed experience. The Thunder are one key addition or a couple of breakthroughs to be a legit challenger to the West throne. Barring injuries, OKC should only improve from now on under the guidance of Scott Brooks. Anything less than a 2nd round visit will be a disappointment.

PACIFIC


Sacramento - The Kings have missed the playoff 4 consecutive season, the streak is not ending soon. Tyreke Evans is an outstanding players but there just not enough help and unfortunately for them they play in the West. Lotto bound again.

Golden St. - The travelling M.A.S.H. unit have a nice collection of young players starting with future All Star Stephen Curry and newly acquired David Lee. Past the starters though they offer very little with the likes of Charlie Bell, Space cadet Radmanovic, and young promising Brendan Wright. They just don't have enough to dent the powers of the West.

The other LA - We finally get a chance to see Blake Griffin in regular season play. It's not uncommon to see the Clippers good on paper, but the curse is real, that's about the only way to explain their consistent bad luck. On paper they have an All Star level point in B Diddy, a good complimentary 2 guard in the Gold Medalist Gordon, All Star caliber rookie in Griffin and a legit post presence in Kaman, what's not to like, they may even contend for the playoffs if the bench can find a way to contribute, but these are the Clippers.

Phoenix - I actually can't believe how low the Suns are being ranked due to the loss of Amar'e. While yes they were better with him, they still have Steve Nash while in his late 30s still plays at All-Star level. Hedo Turkuglu comes in to give Nash another outside threat, and not counting last year Hedo was playing very well, if he can get back to his play back in his Orlando days, he can fill part of the void left by Amar'e, not with explosive maybe, but surely someone who can create his own shot and create for others. They also still have J Richardson, Frye, and the ageless Grant Hill, and a better than average bench led by Dragic, Hakim, Dudley, Warrick and will also be welcoming back into the NBA Swing man Josh Childress. They may not make the final four again, but should make the playoffs.


The Champs - The Lake Show comes back with their core intact, but a year older and recovering from injuries. Heavy favorites to keep the Title again, they may not play to their full ability until after the All-Star break due to the recoveris of Bynum and Bryant. The weakest part of their game was their bench, and with the additions of Steve Blake, feisty Matt Barnes, and solid vet Theo Ratliff, that problem should be solved. Still it dpends how it plays out, they look unbeatable on paper, but this isn't 2K11 where injuries can be eliminated or reset, if the bench can't meet expectations, too much will be asked from the starters to again carry the weight. Reigning finals MVP should still have an ALL-NBA season, but may take a while to get in rhythm. In the mean time fellow All-NBA Pau Gasol, should pick up the slack as first option while Mamba recovers. With Artest winning his first ring, the question now will be, "Will he go back to his crazy ways?", I don't think that's an issue anymore, besides his ring will be raffled, so he now again has to focus on one for him. Odom moves into the starting lineup utnil 'Drew is back and we can only hope he rides a very successful World Championships run and is not too exhausted come playoff time. Fish will still play in crunch time, but now has a solid high IQ backup who should be a better fit than Farmar was, sure not as exciting, but should be more reliable. When Odom goes back as 6th man, he along with Barnes, Brown, Blake, Ratliff, and even Sasha and Luke should give the Champs much needed rest if they can play to their pottential. Lakers should win their division again, and return to defend their title one more time adding even more to Lakers, Jackson, and Kobe's legacy.


SOUTHWEST


New Orleans - Hard to believe just 3 season ago they were one game away from the first Final Four. Chris Paul remains one of the top 2 point guards in the league, problem is, he doesn't have much targets. Greyhound Trevor Ariza will be a nice addition and David West should continue to be solid, even newcomer Bellinelli may make a splash, but their bench is thin and their division tough, they will not make the playoffs.


Memphis - Unfortunately for them they play in a very tough division, and they're one injury to their main core to make them ordinary. The starters are solid with futur All-Star Mayo, and Conley in the back court, surprsinng Zach Randolph, reliable Marc Gasol and Gold medalist Rudy Gay. The bench's bright spot is finalist defensive wing newcomer Tony Allen who should contribute nicely off the bench with his hard work and post season experience. If playing in the Least, they'd be a lock for the playoffs, too bad that's not so.


Houston - Without the Great Wall they still posted a winning record despite an injury raddled season. With an established post presence, Brooks, Martin, and Battier should flourish. Scola is one of the most underated reliable players and the bench has been strengthen with the additions of Courtney Lee and vet Brad Miller joining Chuck Hayes. If Yao stays healthy, they'll be back in the playoffs

San Antonio - The last stand of the Alamo is what most are seeing this season as. Lone Star rivals Spurs & Mavericks are clearly the two best i the division and either can take it. The blue collar feisty Spurs program is still led by mastermind Popovich and with their version of the big 3 still pose a threat to be among the best in the West. The question is the supporting cast, yes, they still work hard, but gone is that lock down defense they had in the championship years. Hall of Fame bound Timmy has lost a step, and no one has filled in the harassing role left by Bruce Bowen. RJ is younger and athletic and an above average player, but he is not the defender BB was or the consistent threat from the corner pocket that BB was. Still if healthy, Timmy while slower is still one of the best big men in the league, Manu can still wreck havoc, and Parker has healed and should be back strong. Very capable of going to the Final Four, health issues will tell.

Dallas - The only West team with depth to challenge the champs. Dallas comes in with a bad taste in their mouth after bowing down to hated Spurs. With consistent Hall of Famers Kidd and Nowitzki at the helm, the Mavs should post another 50+ win season and get to at least the 2nd round. Where they're seeded will play a big part for if they are not in the top 3, they will likely have to meet the champs early. With a full season coming up new comers Butler and Haywood should be more comfortable and improve from last season. Matrix has not been the same since his Phoenix days, but still above average. Super sub Jason Terry will not carry as big of load off the bench as he will get plenty help from newcomer Gold medalist Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea, and explosive sophmore Roddy Beaubois. The Mavs have the personnel to match anyone in the league and have one of the best players period, a repeat first round exit, would be extremely disappointing

WEST FINALS

Lakers over Spurs

EAST FINALS

Leprechauns over Miami Thrice

FINALS

Lakers over Leprechauns

Oh, how sweet it will be!